Projections show Alabama could suffer anywhere from 849 deaths to 9,624 by as early as May 16. Alabama already has 1,300 confirmed cases of the virus and 21 confirmed deaths.

Although Alabama is not currently one of the states most affected by coronavirus, estimates predict a dire situation. A recent epidemiological model shows Alabama could have the highest per capita death rate in the nation, and the fourth highest death count. Projections show Alabama could suffer anywhere from 849 deaths to 9,624 by as early as May 16. Those are the low and high projections, according to data. The mean, or average, projection, shows the state could see 5,516 deaths by May 16, when the projections suggest the death rate would flatten. The data is disturbing because that number is the fourth highest in the country, greater than much more populous states like California and Illinois.




According to new estimates, Alabama is projected to have the 4th most coronavirus deaths in the country. | graphic by Ramsey Archibald New York had the highest mean projection. More than 16,200 New Yorkers are projected to die of the virus by early May. On the high end, IHME predicts as many as 21,000 could die there. Data projections put the mean death toll for the United States at 93,531 by July 15. Alabama’s estimated deaths per 10,000 people, based on the mean projection from IHME, is by far the greatest in the country. Data suggests 11 in 10,000 Alabamians could die from coronavirus in the next few months. The next closest state, New York, has a projected death rate of 8 in 10,000.


Other Southern states also rank highly for potential death tolls. Florida is second behind New York with a mean projection of 6,897 coronavirus deaths by the end of June. Texas is third, with a mean projection of 6,392 deaths before Independence Day. Data shows Alabama could see anywhere from 15 to 500 deaths per day when the virus is projected to peak on April 19. The mean projection predicts 300 Alabamians will die from the virus on that day. Although these numbers are stark, they are actually lower than earlier projections indicated. Early indications showed that anywhere from 40 to 70 percent of the U.S. population could contract the virus, and the death toll was expected to be high.
The projections are a moving target. No one knows how many people will get sick, or how many will die. IHME plans to update its projections on April 4th with new data. IHME also provides projections on the number of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators that are available and will be needed in each state.